Honestly, I wasn’t planning to write anything today.
Spent last night sweating through what felt like the worst fever of the year. But then I opened my charts this morning. BTC touched $78K. Couldn’t stay in bed after that.
No trade on my end during the move. I’ll explain why below. But first — let’s talk about what’s actually been driving this market.
The Macro Picture: Hormuz, Tariffs & the Dollar
The biggest story this week isn’t just the price. It’s the context.
After the U.S. and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire, Iran pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway that’s a critical bottleneck for global oil trade. But there’s a twist most people aren’t talking about enough.
Iran plans to collect cryptocurrency as transit fees from oil tankers passing through the Strait — a $1-per-barrel toll, payable in digital assets including Bitcoin.
Think about what that means for a second.
The Strait of Hormuz moves roughly 21 million barrels of oil daily. At $1 per barrel, that’s potentially $21 million in daily crypto inflows. Not all of it lands in BTC — some flows through yuan and stablecoins — but the signal is loud.
Bitcoin is being used as settlement infrastructure at a sovereign level. That’s not a meme. That’s adoption.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s ceasefire boost is starting to fade as investors look for real-world follow-through. The market wants to see ships actually moving and deals holding. Until then, uncertainty stays elevated.
On the tariff front — if oil stays above $80/barrel, re-inflation fears harden, rate cuts get pushed out further, and all risk assets including BTC face pressure. Watch Brent crude. It matters more than most crypto traders think.
The DXY has been softening. That’s giving BTC room to breathe. But it’s fragile.
Farm DEX airdrops while trading and check out our list.
Bitcoin Price Action & Technical Levels
BTC touched $78K this morning. That’s the headline.
The structure is bullish, but one macro catalyst can flip the script. We’ve seen that play out repeatedly this year.
Bitcoin has remained in deep underextension territory relative to its 50-week simple moving average, currently sitting around $96,800. That tells me this is still a recovery rally, not a new bull leg. We’re bouncing back toward mean, not blowing past it.
Key levels I’m watching right now:
Resistance: $80,000 – $81,000
This is where I get interested in a short. The short-term holder cost basis sits near $80,950, making it a major area where recently acquired coins could face distribution pressure. I’ll be watching for weakness and order flow around that zone. Not looking to fade strong green candles. If it’s ripping, I’m watching, not pressing.
Support: $72,500
That’s my key downside level. On the downside, the 20-day and 50-day EMAs converge near $72,000, where investors bought approximately 220,000 BTC. So $72K–$72.5K is a meaningful zone.
There are levels in between on the downside too. But I’ll be honest — tomorrow is my birthday. And I’m still not 100% recovered. I’m setting alerts on the big levels and deciding when I get there. No need to trade every wick.
The big picture: If BTC sustains a daily close above $75,500, the next technical zone is $80,000–$80,600. That’s the path of least resistance if bulls stay in control.
There’s currently a $450 million sell wall sitting overhead below $76,000, with liquidations surging and derivatives data signaling caution. Price needs to chew through that before any clean run at 80K.
Support Our Work
If you found this helpful, consider signing up on OKX or Bybit using our referral links. Your support keeps this content free and flowing.
My Trades
The short I took? Closed it yesterday at -0.25R.
Was sick. Didn’t want a live trade open while I was horizontal sweating through my sheets. Small loss, no drama. Protecting capital when you can’t focus is the right call. Always. In hindsight, lucky close.
Now — the one that matters: DOGE long is cooking.
I’m in a Dogecoin long and it’s looking good. Moved my stop to breakeven already. If this blows the high, we eat. If it stops me out at BE, zero loss. That’s the kind of setup you want — asymmetric, with risk already removed.
Nothing to do but let it run.
DCA Strategy in This Environment
Not everyone is an active trader. And honestly, in a market this choppy, a DCA approach can quietly outperform people who are overtrading.
The idea is simple: pick an amount you can afford to lose, divide it across weekly or biweekly buys, and don’t try to catch the bottom.
In a range like we’re seeing right now — BTC bouncing between $70K and $78K — a DCA buyer is already accumulating at solid average prices. If this resolves to the upside toward $85K–$90K, those entries look beautiful in hindsight.
The psychological edge of DCA is just as real as the financial one. You’re not staring at charts all day. You’re not panic selling a wick. You just… stack.
For airdrop farmers stacking tokens — same principle applies to your BTC bag on the side. Don’t let all your energy go into farming and forget to build a base position.
📩 Want Trade Setups Before They Move?
If you’re tired of catching the news after the pump, our newsletter breaks down key levels, trade ideas, and macro context — before the crowd.
We cover BTC, altcoins, DCA strategies, and airdrop-friendly plays. No fluff. No hype. Just the setups.
Subscribe here and get the next update straight to your inbox.
Final Words
Markets are moving. The macro backdrop is as wild as it’s ever been — a literal war, crypto being used as geopolitical settlement currency, tariffs reshaping miner economics, and a ceasefire that could unravel any day.
This is not a market where you trade emotionally. Size down when sick. Move stops to BE when you can. Let the big levels come to you.
I’ll be back with more tomorrow. After cake.
If you enjoyed this blog, you may want to check our other trading blogs.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on OKX. See you next time!
Nothing in this post is financial advice. Trade your own plan.
