Arthur Hayes is one of the most recognizable, controversial, and quoted figures in crypto.
Love him or hate him, when he talks, Crypto Twitter listens.
He is best known as the co-founder of BitMEX, the derivatives exchange that helped popularize crypto perpetual futures. But today, Hayes is less an exchange operator and more a market commentator, macro thinker, and full-time main character on CT.
His price predictions often sound extreme.
His opinions change fast.
And yet, his posts regularly move sentiment across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.
So who exactly is Arthur Hayes, and how did he get here?
Early life and background
Arthur Hayes was born in 1985 in the United States.
Before crypto, his path looked very traditional.
He studied economics and finance, then worked in traditional finance roles at firms like Deutsche Bank and Citibank in Hong Kong. That background shaped how he thinks today.
Macro cycles, liquidity, central banks, and leverage are themes that show up constantly in his writing and tweets.
When Bitcoin started gaining traction, Hayes saw something most bankers ignored.
A global, permissionless asset combined with leverage was a perfect recipe for traders.
Founding BitMEX and changing crypto trading
In 2014, Hayes co-founded BitMEX.
At the time, crypto trading was simple.
Spot markets only. No serious leverage. No advanced derivatives.
BitMEX changed that.
The platform introduced perpetual swaps, allowing traders to use high leverage on Bitcoin and later other assets. For many early traders, BitMEX became the place to speculate, hedge, and gamble.
Liquidity exploded.
So did liquidations.
BitMEX quickly became infamous for brutal market moves, especially during high volatility events.
The BitMEX “scam wick” era
This is where many personal crypto stories begin.
Back in the early days, a lot of traders blamed BitMEX for sudden price spikes and crashes.
These moves were called “scam wicks”.
The story went like this:
BitMEX would suddenly wick price up or down, triggering mass liquidations.
Traders would wake up rekt, convinced the exchange hunted stops on purpose.
Personally, I used BitMEX in those early years.
I did not trade perps heavily, but I remember the constant complaints everywhere. Telegram groups. Twitter threads. Forum posts.
Was it manipulation?
Or just thin liquidity, high leverage, and emotional traders?
To this day, opinions differ.
But the BitMEX era shaped an entire generation of crypto traders and memes.
Today, people wonder if crypto is becoming too professional?
Legal trouble and stepping back
BitMEX grew fast.
Too fast.
In 2020, U.S. authorities charged Hayes and other BitMEX founders with violating banking laws related to AML and KYC requirements.
Hayes eventually stepped down as CEO.
He later pleaded guilty to one count and received a sentence including home confinement and probation.
For many, this was the end of the Arthur Hayes story.
It wasn’t.
The rebirth: Arthur Hayes the macro voice
After leaving BitMEX, Hayes re-emerged in a different role.
No longer running an exchange, he became a prolific writer and commentator. His essays focus on:
- Global liquidity
- Central bank policy
- Money printing
- Risk cycles
- Bitcoin as a macro asset
His writing is sharp, confident, and often provocative.
He does not hedge his language.
If he thinks Bitcoin goes to $1 million, he says it. Today, he said BTC will be $200,000 in Q1 of 2026. Who knows, maybe we do see a new ATH soon?
If he turns bearish weeks later, he says that too.
This flip-flopping is exactly why he gets attention.
Why Arthur Hayes is a “main character” on Crypto Twitter
Arthur Hayes fits Crypto Twitter perfectly.
He is loud.
He is smart.
He is early.
And he is never boring.
His price predictions are often extreme. Sometimes absurd.
One month ultra-bullish.
Next month warning about drawdowns and pain.
Yet people still care.
Why?
Because Hayes understands liquidity.
He understands leverage.
And he understands how narratives move markets.
Even when traders disagree with him, they read him.
That alone makes him influential.
Do his price predictions matter?
Short answer: emotionally, yes. Technically, not always.
Hayes does not trade like a retail chart trader.
He thinks in cycles, quarters, and years.
When he posts a target, it is more about framing risk than calling a perfect entry.
Crypto Twitter often takes his words too literally.
But experienced traders read between the lines.
His real value is not the number.
It is the reasoning behind it.
Support Our Work
If you found this helpful, consider signing up on BloFin (Non-KYC) or Bybit using our referral links. Your support keeps this content free and flowing.
Final thoughts
Arthur Hayes is not a traditional crypto influencer.
He is not selling courses.
He is not farming engagement with threads.
He is a product of early crypto chaos, leverage, and macro thinking.
From BitMEX and scam wick rumors to becoming one of the loudest macro voices in crypto, his journey mirrors the space itself. Fast. Messy. Polarizing.
You do not have to agree with him.
But ignoring him is almost impossible.
And that is exactly why Arthur Hayes remains one of the main characters in crypto today.
If you enjoyed this blog, you want to read our guide on address poisoning.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus below on Bybit. See you next time!
