As August comes to a close, Bitcoin is down 2.74% this month. With September around the corner, market watchers are curious if the trend will continue. Historically, September hasn’t been kind to Bitcoin. Over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has ended September in the red 72.73% of the time.
Bitcoin Faces September’s Tough Track Record
September is almost here, and Bitcoin (BTC) is currently down 2.74% as of August 31, 2024. August is usually a quiet month for BTC, so this decline is not unusual. However, past trends suggest that September might not bring much relief. In fact, Bitcoin has ended the month negatively eight times in the last 11 years.
Even in bullish years like 2013, 2017, and 2021, September was challenging for Bitcoin. The hardest hit was in 2014 when BTC fell by 19.01%. Despite this, there is hope that September 2024 could break the pattern. The upcoming U.S. election might play a significant role in influencing Bitcoin’s price.
The 2024 Election and Bitcoin’s Market Cycle
This year, the 2024 election has been a key factor in Bitcoin’s market cycle. Many believe that the election results could impact BTC’s price, either positively or negatively. Additionally, there is potential for a price boost if the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates during its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this month.
A rate cut, whether by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, could potentially lift BTC prices. Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin, with prices rising in nine of the past 11 years. Traders have seen notable gains in October, with increases of 60.79% in 2013, 47.81% in 2017, and 39.93% in 2021.
Looking Ahead
While September has often been tough for Bitcoin, the unique factors in 2024 might lead to different outcomes. The influence of the upcoming election and the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut could result in unexpected changes. Market participants will need to stay alert, as past trends do not always predict future performance.
My September Trading Strategy
Bitcoin has been trading in this range since February. Which is an extremely long range. Some days it felt like this could last forever, while other days were action packed.
Early August we expereinced the big crash, with the wick reaching as low as $49k. I believe it’s only natural for us to retest that area again in September. It’s going to be an extremely important level to watch. Some crypto influencers are already calling BTC to go as low as mid 30k’s. Just make sure to watch the 50k area closely, and decide if you are going to long or wait for lower when it happens. I think it’s very likely we bounce from that level and start the next phase of the bull market.
Untill we reach that area, I am mostly trading this large range with small sized longs and shorts.
Conclusion
September’s historical performance shows a pattern of challenges for Bitcoin. Yet, the current market dynamics, including the upcoming U.S. election and potential Federal Reserve decisions, could bring new opportunities. As always, investors should keep a close watch on market developments and be prepared for possible shifts in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
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