I’m long Bitcoin from $63.8K, TP1 already hit, and my stop sits at breakeven. That’s the kind of trade this bitcoin recovery is serving up right now, and in this post I’ll walk you through exactly how I’m playing the rest of it.
Bitcoin pushed back above $64,000 on August 18 after briefly slipping below $63,000, bouncing off a low near $62,700. The move was good for roughly 2.2% in 24 hours, and it dragged the whole market up with it. Total crypto market cap climbed back toward $2.2 trillion, with Ethereum reclaiming $1,900 along the way.
So is this the start of something real, or one of those bounces that lures everyone in before the next leg down? Let’s look at the data, and then I’ll give you my trade.
What’s Driving the Bitcoin Recovery?
First, the context. Last week was ugly. Trump’s Europe tariffs triggered a flush that wiped out roughly $875 million in leveraged positions across crypto. Add geopolitical jitters and over $385 million flowing out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and you had every excuse for the market to keep bleeding.
It didn’t. Buyers stepped in below $63K and defended that zone aggressively. When a market absorbs bad news, heavy liquidations, and ETF outflows, yet still refuses to make a lower low, that tells you something about who’s exhausted. Hint: it’s not the bulls.
There’s another data point I like here. Derivatives activity is heating up, with transaction fees in the derivatives market hitting a 20-month high on August 14 according to CryptoQuant. Traders are positioning, not sleeping. You don’t see that kind of activity at tops. You see it where people are fighting over a bottom.
The Bear Case: August Is Historically Brutal
Let me be straight with you, because every real thesis needs a bear case.
August has been a red month for Bitcoin four years running, with an average decline of around 10%. Seasonality is not a law of physics, but ignoring a four-year pattern is how traders donate money to the market. On top of that, the skeptics are pointing at the weekly MACD, which remains deeply negative. Their argument: the higher timeframe is still bearish, so this is a dead cat bounce inside a downtrend, not a reversal.
They might be right. This is why I trade the bounce instead of marrying it. We’re still down heavily from the $126K all-time high printed in October 2025, and one green week doesn’t erase a year of distribution. Respect the trend, but respect the counter-trend maths too.
My Trade: Long From $63.8K, Then Flip
Here’s the actual plan, not the hopium version.
My long from $63.8K is already working. TP1 got filled on the push above $64K, and I moved my stop to breakeven the moment it did. From here, the position is a free ride. Worst case, I get stopped out flat. Best case, the bounce carries.
Where does it carry to? My guess is the $66.5K–$67K zone. That level lines up almost perfectly with the technicals: BTC has been rejected at $66K repeatedly, and the 100-day EMA sits at roughly $66,735. When a price magnet and a rejection zone stack up like that, I don’t fight it. Ride the trend into it, take profit into it, and then watch how price reacts.
And if we get a clean rejection of that $66.5K range? I flip short. Target: new lows, preferably, with partial take-profits along the way to lock in gains and de-risk the runner. Long the bounce, short the rejection, no emotional attachment to either direction. The market doesn’t care what I believe, so I try not to believe anything for longer than one setup.
The Trades That Got Away: My ETH and SOL Longs
Full transparency, because I only ever show you the winners if the winners are all there is. This bounce didn’t just happen in Bitcoin, and I was positioned for it in Ethereum and Solana too. Then the market played me out of both.
Here’s how it went down. Both longs hit their early TP1, and as always, I moved my stops to breakeven the moment they did. Saturday’s dip came next, wicked straight through both entries, and took me out of the two trades at BE. The bounce that followed was immediate and violent, way too quick for me to re-enter at any price I liked.
Frustrating? Sure. Salty? No. My entire playbook is built on reducing risk once a trade pays, and the cost of that safety is occasionally getting shaken out right before the move you called actually happens. You can’t take the protection and complain about the price of it. Both trades still closed as small wins thanks to the TP1 fills, the account is intact, and the next setup is already loading. That’s the job.
My Bitcoin DCA Has Officially Started
The scalps are the side quest. The main quest is accumulation, and I can confirm my first DCA buy is done.
If you’ve been following along, you know I laid out my full Bitcoin DCA plan earlier this month, with buy levels, schedule, and the reasoning behind the timing. This bounce doesn’t change that plan one bit. A DCA exists precisely so I don’t have to be right about whether this is the bottom. I buy twice a week through the zone where the bottom is most likely forming, and I let the average price do the heavy lifting.
The same playbook is running across my other conviction plays. My Solana DCA is live, and yesterday I published my HYPE DCA strategy, the only coin I never sold. Notably absent from that list is Ethereum, and I explained why I’m not DCAing ETH for the first time in a decade.
Trade the bounce, accumulate the zone. Those two strategies don’t contradict each other. They fund each other.
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Final Words
The bitcoin recovery is real in price, but unproven in structure. We bounced hard off $62.7K, reclaimed $64K, and did it against ETF outflows and a tariff-driven liquidation cascade. That’s genuine strength. It’s also still a counter-trend move until BTC breaks and holds above the $66K wall that has rejected every attempt for weeks.
My playbook is simple. Stay long from $63.8K with a breakeven stop, target the $66.5K–$67K rejection zone, and flip short if the market tells me to. Meanwhile, the DCA keeps stacking in the background, twice a week, no drama.
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This is not financial advice. This is what I’m personally doing with my own money. Do your own research, size your positions responsibly, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
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FAQ
Is the Bitcoin recovery real or a dead cat bounce? Nobody knows yet, and anyone claiming certainty is selling something. Price reclaimed $64K against heavy outflows, which is bullish, but the weekly trend remains bearish until BTC breaks and holds above $66K.
Why did Bitcoin drop below $63,000? A combination of Trump’s Europe tariffs, which triggered roughly $875 million in liquidations, geopolitical uncertainty, and over $385 million in weekly outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
What price levels matter for Bitcoin right now? Support sits at the $62.7K bounce low, with $60K below that. Resistance stacks at $66K–$67K, where repeated rejections meet the 100-day EMA around $66,735.
Is August a bad month for Bitcoin? Historically, yes. Bitcoin has closed August red four years in a row, with an average drop of around 10%. Seasonality is a tendency, not a guarantee, which is why I follow the trend in front of me.
