Greetings from Monterrey, where I’m splitting my attention between World Cup group-stage chaos and a market that decided to throw its own circuit breaker this morning. Two very different kinds of bloodbath, one very busy Tuesday.
Quick note before we dig in: my ETH short from yesterday is currently up 5R. I’ve already banked some profit on the way down, TP2 is almost tagged, and my stop is parked at break-even. Worst case now, I walk away with small profits. Best case, I ride this lower completely risk-free while the rest of the market works out what just hit it.
What hit it was the AI trade unwind. Korea, SpaceX, and Bitcoin all cracked inside the same 24 hours, and they cracked for the same reason. Let me walk you through it.
Korea Pulled the First Trigger
The session started ugly in Seoul. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 9.99% and slammed straight into a market-wide trading halt, its worst single day since March and the fourth circuit breaker of the year after zero in all of 2025.
The trigger was almost comically self-inflicted. One day earlier, the country’s top financial regulator admitted it had rushed the approval of leveraged funds tied to Samsung and SK Hynix, the two chip giants that basically are the Korean index. Once that admission landed, foreign money sprinted for the exit. Over $2.5 billion got pulled from Korean equities in a single session, and Samsung and SK Hynix each dropped more than 12%.
Here’s the part that matters for us. Samsung and SK Hynix are global proxies for AI chip demand. When they bleed, it isn’t a “Korea problem,” it’s an “AI trade” problem, and that contagion doesn’t respect borders. Nasdaq futures slid, gold and silver sold off hard, and the risk-off wave rolled straight into crypto.
Bitcoin Got Caught in the Crossfire
Bitcoin fell below $62,000, dropping around 3.5% on the day and tagging its 200-week moving average, a long-term level that traders watch closely. Ethereum slid under $1,700 for the first time since mid-June, and the rest of the board followed. XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid all shed 6% to 7%.
The leverage flush was brutal. More than $530 million in crypto positions got liquidated over 24 hours, with $150 million of that hitting longs in a matter of minutes. Six straight weeks of Bitcoin ETF outflows had already drained a chunk of demand, so there was nobody left to catch the knife.
Now for the nuance, because it’s important. Crypto actually held up better than the equity panic. Korean retail traders, once a massive force in this space, have largely rotated into leveraged stock bets, so crypto now makes up only about 8% of KOSPI volume. That means the equity meltdown had very little direct crypto selling to feed on. What dragged Bitcoin lower wasn’t Koreans dumping coins, it was correlation. Right now BTC trades like a high-beta tech asset, not a decoupled store of value. Calm when tech rips, perfectly correlated when tech pukes.
SpaceX: The Meme Stock of the AI Era
If you want a single chart that captures retail aping the top, pull up SPCX.
SpaceX priced its record-shattering IPO at $135 and opened its first trade at $150 on June 12. From there it went vertical, ripping to an all-time high of $225.64 by June 16. Then reality showed up. The stock closed down 16.4% on Monday at $154.60, its biggest down day since debut, and slipped below $150 in Tuesday’s premarket. After all that drama, it’s up barely 14% from the IPO price.
So who’s actually underwater? Anyone who chased the pop above roughly $155 on day 1 is now in the red, and everyone who bought the $225 top is staring at a 30%-ish drawdown. Retail couldn’t get the $135 allocation in size, that went to institutions. Regular investors bought on the open market at $150 and up. Translation: the crowd bought the hype, and the hype is now bleeding out.
The direct trigger? SpaceX just confirmed a $20 billion bond sale, its first ever, right after raising $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. Raise seventy-five billion, then immediately go borrow twenty more. Pair that with a $4.9 billion loss last year, a $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026, and $41.3 billion in accumulated losses since 2002, and the market suddenly remembered to care about cash burn. A former Nasdaq chief flat-out said the stock trades on aspiration, not fundamentals. With only a 4% free float, every buyer and seller swings it like a small-cap, so it moves like a meme on a $2 trillion market cap.
And here’s the crypto bridge nobody else is connecting: SpaceX speculation literally runs on our rails. SPCX-linked perpetual futures trade on Hyperliquid via the SPCX-USDC contract, one of the most active proxies for SpaceX sentiment out there. Leverage-hungry crypto traders were betting on the rocket stock using the same venue degens use for everything else.
It’s All One Trade
Step back and the picture is obvious. Korea, SpaceX, and Bitcoin aren’t three separate stories. They’re one trade unwinding in three different costumes.
AI euphoria inflated all of them. Margin-loaded retail piled into Samsung and SK Hynix, momentum chasers bought SPCX at $225, and crypto longs leaned into the rally with borrowed size. Every one of those crowds aped the same top. When the AI narrative wobbled, the leverage that powered the rally went into reverse and forced selling did the rest, across stocks, chips, metals, and coins simultaneously.
The shared plumbing makes it almost poetic. SpaceX bulls and crypto bulls were leveraging up on the same Hyperliquid order books. Same greed, same venue, same lesson.
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My Trade and How I’m Positioning
I’ll keep this honest, like always. That ETH short is my one green flag in a red tape, and I’m glad to be in at least one short right now rather than watching from the sidelines wishing I’d acted.
From here, I’m leaning toward finding short entries on SpaceX, Bitcoin, and Hyperliquid. I’ll keep that bias until price gives me a clean invalidation of the bearish scenario. Right now the structure looks more bearish than bullish, and I’m not going to argue with the chart just because it would feel nicer to be long.
One macro flag I’m watching closely: the Iran, Israel, and US ceasefire is holding, but it’s fragile. If any of those three breaks it, we very likely see another leg down across risk assets, crypto included. Higher oil, fresh safe-haven demand, more pressure on everything speculative. Keep that scenario taped to your monitor.
To be crystal clear, I’m not calling the bottom and I’m not calling a crash. I’m reading what’s in front of me and managing risk around it. The moment price invalidates the bear case, I’ll flip my thinking without ego.
What If You’re Not a Trader? Lean On DCA
Not everyone wants to scalp shorts and babysit stops at 2am. That’s completely fine, and honestly, for most people it’s the smarter path.
If you believe in crypto over a multi-year horizon, dollar-cost averaging is the boring strategy that quietly beats panic every single time. The idea is simple: buy a fixed amount on a fixed schedule, weekly or monthly, regardless of price. Red day, green day, doesn’t matter. You keep stacking. Days like today, when everything is screaming lower and the timeline is full of fear, are exactly the days a DCA plan is built for. You’re not trying to time the bottom, you’re removing the need to. Volatility stops being a threat and becomes your entry. Set the schedule, automate it if you can, and let it run through the noise.
Final Words
Today wasn’t a crypto story or a Korea story or a SpaceX story. It was an AI trade unwind that swept through all three because they were always the same bet wearing different jerseys.
For traders, this is a moment to respect the trend, manage risk tightly, and stop pretending leverage is free. For long-term holders, it’s a reminder that boring beats clever when fear takes the wheel. Either way, keep one eye on that ceasefire, because the macro can flip the script fast.
I’ll be in Monterrey through the end of the month, waiting to attend an epic world cup game, riding my short and hunting the next entry between matches. Stay sharp, stay liquid, and don’t ape the top.
If you enjoyed this blog, check our recent blog about Trump and Quantum Computing.
As always, don’t forget to claim your bonus on OKX below. See you next time!
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FAQ
What is the “AI trade unwind”? It’s the synchronized selloff in assets that rallied on AI hype, like semiconductor stocks, SpaceX, and crypto. When the AI narrative wobbles, the leverage that powered those rallies reverses and forced selling spreads across all of them at once.
Why did Bitcoin fall if the crash started in Korean stocks? Correlation, not direct selling. Bitcoin currently trades like a high-beta tech asset, so when the AI and chip complex sells off, risk-off sentiment drags crypto down with it, even without Koreans dumping coins directly.
Is SpaceX stock (SPCX) a good buy after the drop? That’s your call, not mine. What’s clear is that SPCX has a tiny 4% free float, no profits yet, a fresh $20 billion bond sale, and extreme volatility, so it moves more on sentiment than fundamentals right now. Size accordingly.
What’s the 200-week moving average and why does it matter for Bitcoin? It averages Bitcoin’s closing price over the last 200 weeks, smoothing out short-term noise into a long-term trend line. Historically it has acted as a major support zone, which is why traders pay attention when price taps it.
Could the market drop further? It can, especially if the Iran, Israel, and US ceasefire breaks or AI sentiment keeps deteriorating. Nobody knows for sure, so manage risk and avoid betting the farm on either direction.
