Six weeks ago, I wrote that XRP had to defend $1.
It did. Price chopped around that floor for weeks, then ripped higher. This week XRP tagged $1.66, a few cents shy of $1.70.
That’s a move of nearly 70% off the August low. Not bad for a coin most people had written off.
Now the XRP Uptober crowd is out in force. Let’s look at what drove the bounce, what could stall it, and the levels I’m watching going into October.
Why Is XRP Pumping?
XRP is pumping because fresh ETF money returned to crypto, shorts got squeezed, and the $1 floor held. On September 21, US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million, their best day of 2026. XRP rode that wave from $1.41 to $1.54 in a single session. Two days later it hit $1.66 before sellers stepped in.
From the $1 Test to $1.66
Let’s rewind.
XRP opened 2026 near $2.03. By August it was scraping $0.99. That’s more than half its value gone in under eight months.
My August post boiled the whole story down to one level. Hold $1, and buyers had something to build on. Lose it, and $0.95 was next.
The floor held. XRP spent weeks grinding around $1 without a clean breakdown. Back in July I was already stalking a sweep of $0.97, so that zone had my attention long before the crowd noticed it.
Then September arrived. XRP printed gains in six of seven sessions after bouncing off support at $1.32. The big candle came on September 21: almost 9%, from $1.41 to $1.54. Two days later price spiked to $1.66.
And then it faded. XRP closed that session near $1.50 and trades around the same level as I write this.
Nearly $1 Billion in ETF Money in One Day
The timing of the jump wasn’t random.
Monday brought the biggest wave of fresh institutional money crypto has seen all year. US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $999 million. BlackRock’s IBIT alone took $381 million of that. Ether ETFs added another $270 million on top.
Bitcoin pushed above $86,000 on those flows and briefly topped $87,000 the next day. Large caps followed. XRP outran the rest of the top five, climbing roughly 24% in a week.
The XRP ETFs woke up too. They booked about $20 million in a single day, their best since the late-August bounce. Compare that with August, when weekly XRP ETF inflows had shrunk to around $1 million.
Short sellers added fuel. Short liquidations have topped $67 million since September 13. Every leg up forced more bears to buy back their positions.
That’s real fuel. Squeeze fuel burns out fast, though.
XRP Uptober: A Nice Story, Mixed Data
Uptober is crypto’s nickname for October. The idea is simple: October tends to be a green month. We covered where the meme came from in the story of Uptober.
Bitcoin’s track record fits the pattern reasonably well. XRP’s is shakier. Historically, XRP’s median October return sits around -1.79%.
Seasonality alone doesn’t make a trade.
Regulation adds another wrinkle. The Senate failed to push the CLARITY Act through a procedural vote earlier this month. That bill would treat XRP as a commodity rather than a security, closing a legal question mark that has hung over it for years. We broke down the Clarity Act failure the day it happened.
Until Washington tries again, regulation stays an open risk.
September 29: The XRPL Batch Upgrade
One hard date sits on the calendar before October starts.
The XRP Ledger’s Batch amendment targets activation on September 29. Batch lets users bundle up to eight transactions into one, where either everything settles or nothing does. Think of a tokenized security and its payment clearing at the exact same moment.
It’s the second attempt. RippleX pulled the first version in February after auditors found a signature flaw. The rewrite passed three outside reviews, and 30 of 35 validators backed it as of last weekend. Activation still needs support above 80% until the two-week timer runs out.
Here’s my honest take for traders. Batch doesn’t require XRP to work. A better ledger doesn’t automatically mean more demand for the token. Upgrade dates often turn into sell-the-news events, so I wouldn’t size up just for this one.
Today’s Macro: Light Data, Heavy Fed
Anyone chasing Uptober shouldn’t ignore macro. Crypto still trades like a leveraged bet on risk appetite.
This week’s calendar is thin on data. The only notable US release today is weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET. Last week’s print came in at 196,000, well below the 208,000 forecast and close to July’s 60-year low.
Why can a small report move XRP? Bots react to the number within seconds. On a quiet week, even a mid-tier release can swing Bitcoin a few percent. XRP usually moves more than that.
The bigger driver is the Fed. It raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, its first hike since 2023. Our Fed rate hike 2026 breakdown covers the decision and the crypto reaction. More than ten Fed officials are speaking this week, and markets are hunting for hints about the October 28 meeting.
A labor market this tight gives the Fed cover to hike again. Soft jobs data would ease that pressure. For XRP, that’s the macro coin flip hanging over October.
XRP Price Levels I’m Watching
Resistance
$1.60 to $1.66 is the wall. XRP got rejected there on September 23, with the daily RSI near 70. A daily close above $1.66 puts $1.70 in play. Most traders see that level as the real ceiling.
Support
The first floor is $1.40 to $1.42, where the 20-day moving average sits. Below that, $1.28 to $1.35 holds a cluster of longer-term moving averages and the September breakout base. Then comes $1, the level that started all of this.
My read: this looks like a first leg, not a finished trend. Bulls need $1.40 to hold on any pullback to keep the structure intact.
New to XRP? Here’s how to buy XRP for the first time without the rookie mistakes.
My Take: No Position, Eyes Open
I first bought XRP in 2015 for fractions of a cent. I sold in May 2017 at roughly 100x, from a beach in Sri Lanka, long before the top. That trade taught me never to get married to a view on this coin.
Right now I hold no XRP. It isn’t on my DCA shopping list either. BTC, HYPE, SOL, ZEC and NEAR get my weekly buys.
That doesn’t mean I’m ignoring the chart. The August call played out: $1 held and price ran almost 70%. Zooming out, I also think the market already printed its low for this cycle, as I laid out in my 4-year cycle bottom post. If that’s right, dips in large caps like XRP are opportunities, not warnings. A clean daily close above $1.66 would get my attention for a long on the retest. Losing $1.40 would tell me this was mostly a squeeze.
Curious what XRP actually does under the hood? Our XRP guide explains Ripple, the ledger and the escrow in plain English.
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Keep This Content Free
Uptober trades get expensive fast when fees stack up. If you’re trading XRP this month, consider opening your position through our OKX or Bybit links. It costs you nothing extra and keeps our research free for everyone.
Final Words
The $1 floor did its job. XRP bounced, ETF money came back, and shorts paid for the ride to $1.66. That’s a solid start to XRP Uptober, but history says October is no sure thing for this coin. Watch $1.66 above and $1.40 below. Keep an eye on the September 29 upgrade, and don’t forget the Fed. I’m on the sidelines for now, waiting for the chart to make the next move clear. Looking for an October trade with a different catalyst? Check out how to buy Polymarket stock through the pre-IPO perp on Bybit.
FAQ
Why is XRP going up?
XRP is rising because the $1 support held, spot crypto ETFs saw their biggest inflow day of 2026, and over $67 million in shorts got liquidated. XRP ETFs also recorded their best daily inflow since late August.
Is Uptober real for XRP?
Not reliably. Bitcoin has a decent October track record, but XRP’s median October return is around -1.79%. Treat Uptober as a narrative, not a signal.
What is the XRPL Batch upgrade?
Batch lets users combine up to eight XRP Ledger transactions into one atomic operation. It targets activation on September 29, 2026, if validator support stays above 80%.
What are the key XRP support and resistance levels?
Resistance sits at $1.60 to $1.66, with $1.70 above that. Support sits at $1.40 to $1.42, then $1.28 to $1.35, then $1.
How does the CLARITY Act affect XRP?
The bill would classify XRP as a commodity instead of a security. It failed a Senate procedural vote in September 2026, so XRP’s US regulatory status stays unresolved for now.
