Yes. I think the 4-year cycle bottom is already in.
Bitcoin topped at roughly $126,000 on October 6, 2025. It then bled for eight months and printed its bear market low near $60,000 in June 2026. Today it trades around $85,000. That is a bounce of more than 40% off the lows, and the highest level since late January.
The classic cycle script says the bottom should land in October. We are two weeks away from that window. Yet the market already ripped. So which is it? Did the cycle break, or did it simply arrive early?
I have been in Bitcoin since 2013. Here is how I read it, plus my exact plan for the next month.
Quick Answer: Is the 4-Year Cycle Bottom In?
Most likely, yes. The price bottom of this cycle printed in June 2026 near $60,000, about eight months after the October 2025 top. Bitcoin has since moved above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks and made a higher high. The cycle clock still points to October 2026, but that can mark the time bottom rather than the price bottom. A final shakeout toward the low $60Ks remains possible. Falling to $40,000 now looks highly unlikely.
We Called the Top. Then We Called the Bottom.
Quick flex before the charts. I earned this one.
In September 2025, I published my take on the Bitcoin 4-year cycle. Bitcoin had just tagged $122K and pulled back to $110K. The chart in that post literally asked if we were near a top on the monthly. My call was a top around October. Bitcoin topped on October 6, a few weeks later.
Before that, we published our top patterns guide, about two months before the cycle high. Then, on June 28, 2026, we dropped the bottom patterns guide. The next day, Bitcoin traded near $59,600. That was pretty much the market low.
Are you paying attention, anon?
To be fair, not every theory we covered aged well. In December, we broke down the Bitcoin 2-year cycle idea, where some big names argued deep crashes were a thing of the past. The bear that followed cut Bitcoin roughly in half. Cycles still rule this market, even with ETFs in the room.
People think we only publish airdrop guides. With a name like AirdropAlert, I get it. But we cover everything we see in this market, and we sit right on the frontlines. New trends, trading guides, live trade setups, security threats to watch. Our goal is simple: a community that thrives in every market condition.
So for those of you who did pay close attention, I hope you did well this bear. It’s almost over. And the upcoming bull is where we all flourish.
What the 4-Year Cycle Predicted
The 4-year cycle runs on the Bitcoin halving. Every four years, the new supply per block drops by half. Back in 2009, each block paid 50 BTC, which is how Satoshi ended up with roughly 1.1 million Bitcoin. Today a block pays just 3.125 BTC. Historically, a parabolic top followed 12 to 18 months after each cut. A brutal bear market came next, bottoming roughly a year after the top.
This cycle hit its marks. The halving landed in April 2024. Eighteen months later, in October 2025, came the top. Analysts who map the cycle, like Benjamin Cowen, pointed to October 2026 for the low. That fits the midterm-year bottoms of 2014, 2018 and 2022.
So why did the low come in June instead?
Time bottom vs price bottom
Here is the nuance most people miss. A cycle has two bottoms. First comes the price bottom, the lowest candle of the bear. Then there’s the time bottom, the point where the bear runs out of time and the trend flips for good.
They don’t always land on the same day. I think this cycle front-ran its price low by a few months, fueled by forced selling during the June liquidation cascade. October can still mark the end of the bear on the clock. The price low, however, looks like it already sits behind us.
Why Everyone Expected $40K
Scroll back to July and the timeline was brutal. Fear and Greed sat deep in extreme fear. Every second post called for $40K or lower. The logic sounded clean. Past bears dropped 77% to 84% from the top. Repeat that from $126K and Bitcoin lands between $20K and $30K. Even $40K felt generous.
I also expected the real bottom to show itself later. That is why I had limit orders sitting from $52K all the way down to $38K, just in case.
They never filled. Bitcoin never broke below the high $50Ks and turned around.
The TA Case Against $40K
Now that Bitcoin sits at $85K, I have to say it. $40K looks highly unlikely. From here, that would take a drop of more than 50%, right at the end of a bear market. Here’s why the charts don’t support it.
The 50-week moving average flipped
Bitcoin just moved above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. That line acts as the bull/bear border on the weekly chart. Bitcoin lost it in late 2025 and failed to reclaim it for most of 2026. Losing it again is possible. Crashing 50% below it, though, would be a whole new bear market, not the tail of the old one.
Market structure turned bullish
If you read our market structure guide, you know the rule. Bears print lower highs and lower lows. Bulls print higher highs and higher lows.
In early August, the pullback held well above the June low. September’s dip after the Clarity Act vote stalled near $75K. Each low sits higher than the last. Then Bitcoin broke the $82K range high and pushed to $86K. That is a textbook trend change, and the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day backs it up. A trip to $40K would smash through every one of those levels.
Bad news stopped working
Last week threw everything at this market. The Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023. Japan’s central bank hiked too, to a 31-year high. Then the Senate blocked the Clarity Act. Bitcoin shrugged and never traded meaningfully below $75K. When a market stops falling on bad news, sellers are running out of ammo.
What history says about final flushes
Fair is fair. The 2018 bear did end with a 50% flush, from about $6,400 in November to $3,200 in December. That drop started from a flat, sleepy range under falling moving averages, though. No 40% rally, no reclaimed 50-week. The 2022 capitulation, triggered by the FTX collapse, was closer to 25–30%.
Apply that to today. A 25–30% flush from $85K lands around $60K–$64K, right on the June lows. That is the retest scenario I take seriously. A sub-$40K move would need something bigger than FTX.
The Risk Curve Is Waking Up
Bitcoin doesn’t move alone. When a bottom is real, the riskiest corners of crypto usually wake up first. Right now, they are wide awake.
The meme coin trenches are back
Solana, Robinhood Chain and BNB Chain all caught fire again. Look at the runners of the last two months. PONS and Cashcat led Robinhood Chain. Niu Lai and MARSCOIN carried BNB. On Solana, CATE became the cat everyone was chasing, while ZCAT turned Zcash rewards into a meme. All of them ran to a $100M market cap or beyond. In a dead market, meme coins don’t do that.
Zcash is running
Privacy became the narrative of this recovery. ZEC broke $1,500 and printed its highest price outside its 2016 launch week. Money rotating into a nine-year high on an old coin tells you risk appetite is back.
NFTs are finding new tricks
Even NFTs are showing signs of life, with fresh sales and new formats. Jack Butcher sold his drop “8” through X Money, with buyers paying $8 on X instead of using a mint page. On Zcash, the zkSNARKs blind auction raised about $17.5M, controversy and all. Over on Robinhood Chain, the Doodles co-founder launched Rare Friends, a free-mint whitelist that drew nearly 33,000 wallets.
None of this happens at the start of a bear market. It happens at the end.
How Time-Wise DCA Saved My Ass
Here’s the honest part. I didn’t catch this bottom with my limit orders. My ladder from $52K to $38K is still sitting there, unfilled.
What saved me was the boring half of my plan. Since early August, I have run a time-wise DCA strategy twice per week. No chart reading, no hero entries. Just scheduled buys into the five coins I want to hold: BTC, HYPE, SOL, ZEC and NEAR.
If I had tried to time the exact bottom, I would have missed this entire run. Instead, I already hold a position in all five. Think of the price ladder as insurance. The time-wise DCA was the engine.
What I’m changing now
Some analysts still expect one final 20% flush before this cycle closes. From August’s levels, that points straight at the low $60Ks. My new ladder starts right there.
- New ladder: my limit orders move up to a range from $62K down to $48K, just in case we get a final shakeout.
- Time-wise DCA: stays exactly as it is. Twice per week, no changes.
- Mid-October rule: if Bitcoin is not below $69K by then, the full limit-order budget goes into the market. Might be a one-clipper at that point.
Why $69K? It’s the previous cycle’s all-time high. If the bear can’t drag Bitcoin below the old peak before the cycle clock runs out, I’m not waiting for a flush that isn’t coming.
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Final Words
Is the 4-year cycle bottom already in? I believe it is. The price low printed in June, the trend flipped, and the riskiest corners of the market are breathing again.
The cycle clock still ticks toward October. I respect that, which is why a small ladder stays in place for one last shakeout. But I stopped waiting for $40K.
Most traders will spend this bull trying to buy the exact bottom. The ones who win just keep buying. See you at the next top, anon.
FAQ
When does the Bitcoin bear market end in 2026?
Based on the 4-year cycle, the bear market ends around October 2026, one year after the October 2025 top. I think the price bottom already printed in June near $60,000, with October marking the time bottom.
Can Bitcoin still drop to $40,000?
It’s possible, but unlikely. From $85,000, it would take a 50%+ crash right after Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average. A retest of the $60K–$64K zone is the more realistic worst case.
Is the 4-year cycle dead?
No. This cycle topped in October 2025, right on schedule, 18 months after the April 2024 halving. The bottom simply looks like it came a few months early.
What is the difference between a time bottom and a price bottom?
A price bottom is the lowest price of the bear market. A time bottom is the moment the bear runs out of time and the trend turns for good. The two don’t always land in the same month.
Is it too late to DCA into Bitcoin?
Not if your horizon is the next bull market. Time-wise DCA spreads your entries, so you never need to nail the exact low. This is not financial advice, so size positions to your own risk.
