Bitcoin has never closed two red years in a row. 2025 finished red, and 2026 is red too right now. So either history breaks this December, or Bitcoin pulls off a big comeback in the next six weeks.
Overnight, BTC dipped to about $62,100 and now trades near $65,200. Solana tagged roughly $68. Two of my DCA orders filled while I was asleep. It’s Sunday, though, and I’m not trading today. Let me explain why, what the history says, and the two scenarios I’m watching for tomorrow.
Has Bitcoin Ever Had Two Red Years in a Row?
No. Since 2011, Bitcoin has closed only four calendar years in the red: 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2025. Every red year so far was followed by a green one.
Here is the track record:
2014: about -56%, then 2015 closed around +35%.
2018: about -73%, then 2019 closed around +92%.
2022: about -64%, then 2023 closed around +155%.
2025: about -6%, then 2026… still open.
Bitcoin opened 2026 near $87,500. At $65,200, it sits about 25% lower for the year. To close green, BTC needs roughly +34% in the 46 days left. Possible in crypto? Yes. Likely? That depends on what happens at this exact spot.
There is a second “rule” pulling the other way. Every second year after a halving has closed red so far: 2014, 2018 and 2022. Since 2026 is the second year after the 2024 halving, one of the two patterns has to break this year.
Remember, 2025 already broke a pattern. It was the first post-halving year ever to close red. Patterns in Bitcoin are not laws. This is still a young asset class with only a handful of yearly candles to study, so I treat these stats as context, never as a trading signal.
Three Hits in Two Weeks Killed the Momentum
August and September gave us great momentum. BTC climbed from the summer lows near $60K to around $86K in early October. Then the market took three heavy punches in a row.
First came the Binance hack on October 29. We covered the fallout in the Binance hack post mortem. The biggest exchange in the world getting drained shook confidence across the whole market.
Next, the Democrats swept the midterms. Traders priced in a tougher regulatory road for crypto, and I explained my election-night trades in the Democrats sweep blog.
Finally, Jensen couldn’t keep it in his pants. The Nvidia scandal dragged chip stocks lower, and Huang ended up leaving as CEO. Here’s our coverage of Jensen Huang resigning. When the biggest AI stock wobbles, risk assets wobble with it, and crypto trades as a risk asset.
Each of those events hit the market on its own. Three of them inside two weeks turned a healthy pullback into a flush. For the full list of reasons behind this slide, check our why is Bitcoin down update, which I refresh after every big dip.
Higher Low or Lower Low: My Take
This is the part that matters for the yearly candle.
The 2026 low printed in the summer, around $58K. Last night’s wick stopped near $62,100. As long as BTC holds above the summer low, we are building a higher low on the bigger timeframe.
If we make a higher low here, I’m pretty certain 2026 ends green. A higher low after three shock events tells me sellers are running out of ammo. In that case, a fast move back toward the yearly open is very realistic, because crypto rallies tend to come quick once the selling dries up.
If we make a lower low, hold on to your pants. A break below $58K would confirm the summer low as a lower high on the way down. Then the “two red years” headline becomes very real, and the four-year cycle crowd gets their bear market extension.
I laid out my bigger-picture view in the four-year cycle bottom post. Nothing has changed there yet. However, the next few days decide whether that view holds or needs a rethink.
Solana Update: Breakpoint Week, Whale Moves and My DCA
Solana trades near $72 after an overnight wick to about $68. Year to date, SOL is down around 42% from its $124 open. That’s a lot worse than Bitcoin, which is normal for an alt in a risk-off market.
The timing is interesting, though. Breakpoint, Solana’s yearly conference, opens today at Olympia London and runs until November 17. It’s the first Breakpoint in the UK, with speakers like Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid and executives from Mastercard and DTCC. Big conferences often bring ecosystem announcements, but they rarely fix a weak chart by themselves.
A few other Solana headlines from the weekend:
Forward Industries, the biggest public SOL treasury, moved about 1.78 million SOL to Coinbase Prime overnight. A deposit like that is not a confirmed sale. Still, the market watches it closely because the company bought far higher.
Jito’s BAM now covers more than 40% of staked SOL.
Co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko showed a full mainnet node running on a single tablet CPU core, pushing back on the “Solana is too heavy to run” argument.
If you want the tech background, our Solana Alpenglow explainer covers the big consensus upgrade.
My DCA: Half Done, Orders Down to $40K
None of this changes my DCA. The plan is now 50% complete, and last night’s wick filled two more orders. That’s exactly what limit orders are for. I started this plan back in August, and you can read the original Solana setup in my Solana DCA plan.
My Bitcoin orders run all the way down to $40K. On Solana, the ladder goes down to $50. Do I think we get there? Honestly, I doubt it. But I want orders in place just in case, for liquidation cascades or panic wicks. Those moves last minutes. Nobody catches them by clicking buttons in real time.
That’s the whole point of a price-based DCA. You decide your levels when you’re calm, then let the market come to you. Two red years or a green close, the plan doesn’t care. My other hold coins follow the same logic, which I explained in the crypto bottom buying list.
Trade Section: Why I’m Not Trading Today
I only trade on Sundays when I feel like it, or when the market sits at a critical, obvious spot. Today is neither. Weekend liquidity is thin, and thin books create fake moves. So I’m sitting on my hands.
If you do want to trade this, the spot is very tradable. On SOL, the June low sits around $63. Last night’s wick near $68 stayed above it, so this could be a higher low.
Scenario one is the higher low. I’d want to see SOL reclaim the $75 area, where it broke down on Friday, before I trust a long. A stop then goes under the overnight low. On BTC, the matching signal is a reclaim of the $68K to $70K zone.
Scenario two is the breakdown. If SOL loses $63, the higher-low idea is dead. Then the next leg could run toward the $58 to $60 area, where a short makes more sense than a long.
Both scenarios are very tradable. I’ll check the charts tomorrow and see if I can still find myself a trade. For reference, my last trading post was ETH under $2,000, where I mapped the same higher-low question for Ethereum.
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This Week’s Macro Events
The weekend dip is only the warm-up. Three events can move crypto this week and next.
Nvidia reports earnings on Tuesday, November 17. It’s the first report since Huang stepped down, so the stock could swing hard either way. Crypto has been trading in lockstep with tech, which makes this the big one.
On Wednesday, the Fed releases the minutes from its last meeting. Markets already price a real chance of a rate hike at the December 9 to 10 meeting. Hawkish minutes would add pressure to risk assets.
Then PCE inflation lands on November 25. A hot print would push hike odds higher again.
Keep This Content Free
Two red years or not, these updates stay free because readers sign up through our links. If you trade the next move, grab a signup bonus on OKX or Bybit. It costs you nothing.
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Final Words
Bitcoin has never closed two red years in a row, and 2026 is on track to be the first. History is on the bulls’ side. The halving calendar is on the bears’ side. Personally, I trust the chart more than both.
The key is simple. A higher low here and I’m pretty certain 2026 ends green. A lower low below the summer lows and we’re in for a much rougher ride. Meanwhile, my DCA keeps doing its job with orders down to $40K, and I’ll hunt for a trade tomorrow.
New to all this? Start with how to buy Bitcoin for the first time and only buy what you can hold through a drop like this one.
FAQ
Has Bitcoin ever had two red years in a row?
No. Bitcoin closed four calendar years red (2014, 2018, 2022 and 2025), and each of the first three was followed by a green year. If 2026 closes below its opening price of about $87,500, it will be the first back-to-back red years in Bitcoin’s history.
How much does Bitcoin need to rise to close 2026 green?
Bitcoin opened 2026 near $87,500. From about $65,200, it needs a gain of roughly 34% before December 31 to finish the year green.
What was Bitcoin’s 2026 low?
The 2026 low came in the summer, around $58K. The November dip stopped near $62,100, which keeps a possible higher low intact.
Why is Bitcoin down in November 2026?
Three events hit the market inside two weeks: the Binance hack on October 29, the Democrat midterm sweep and the Nvidia scandal that ended with Jensen Huang’s resignation. Thin weekend liquidity made the latest drop worse.
Does the halving cycle say 2026 should be red?
So far, every second year after a halving (2014, 2018 and 2022) closed red. However, 2025 already broke the post-halving pattern, so the cycle is clearly not a fixed law.
What are the key Solana levels right now?
The June low near $63 is the line for a higher low. A reclaim of the $75 area would support the bullish case, while a loss of $63 opens the door to the $58 to $60 zone.
Is Solana Breakpoint 2026 happening now?
Yes. Breakpoint runs from November 15 to 17 at Olympia London, the first edition in the UK.
