Is the bull market canceled? Not officially. Nobody gets an email when a bull market ends. What we do have is Bitcoin under $70,000, ETH under $2,000 and a timeline full of people calling the top in. The bigger structure is still intact, though. As long as BTC holds above its June low near $58,000, this is a higher low, not a new bear market.
That said, I won’t pretend I know which way this breaks. Nobody does. So instead of guessing, I plan for every scenario. Below you’ll find the doom checklist and what each item means. Then I show how I position for the good, the bad and the ugly.
The Doom Checklist: Real Threat or Just Noise?
Let’s go through everything the bears are yelling about this week. I’ll score each one honestly.
Bitcoin lost $70,000. BTC wicked to about $68,700 overnight in a nervous week. I keep a running log of every dip in our why is Bitcoin down post. Score: real, but not fatal.
ETH broke $2,000. It is the first time since August, and I covered the levels in my previous trading post. Score: ugly, yet still above the June low.
Inflation is running hot. CPI came in at 0.4% on Tuesday, which I broke down in my CPI trading post. PPI followed today, and economists expected about 6.6% over the year. Score: real. Rate hikes are the biggest risk on this list.
The Fed might hike in December. Markets already price a hike at the December 9 to 10 meeting. A half-point move is not off the table either. Score: real.
Nvidia lost its CEO. Jensen Huang resigned on Thursday, and the stock dropped about 14% at one point. Here is who runs Nvidia now. Score: noise for crypto long term, pain short term.
ETFs keep selling. Spot Bitcoin and ETH funds keep bleeding. Score: real, but flows flip fast.
The 4-year cycle says November. Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022. Count four years and you land on November 2026. Score: a meme, until it isn’t.
Is the Bull Market Over, or Is This a Shakeout?
Let’s zoom out, because the daily chart lies to you on weeks like this.
Bitcoin topped near $126,000 in October 2025. Then came the bear. BTC bled into June 2026 and bottomed near $58,000, roughly a 53% drawdown. From there, it ran to around $85,000 by early October. Since then, price has slid back to the high $60,000s.
Here is the key part. A drop from $85,000 to $68,000 hurts. Still, it is about 20% off the high, and price sits well above the June low. In a healthy uptrend, pullbacks like this happen all the time. The structure only breaks if Bitcoin loses $58,000. That would be a lower low, and then the bears would have a real case.
There is a darker scenario too. Some analysts never believed the June low was the bottom. Galaxy Research, for example, put its base case for the cycle low between $40,000 and $46,000, with a window into Q4 2026. And Q4 2026 is right now.
So what is it? A bull market shakeout, or the final leg of the bear? Honestly, it could be either. The good news is that you don’t have to know the answer. You only need a plan for both.
The Anthropic IPO: Is Betting Money Getting Ready?
There is one more big date on the calendar. Anthropic, the company behind Claude, prices its IPO on November 18. The stock should start trading on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT one day later. Anthropic plans to sell 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. At the top of that range, it raises about $64 billion, which would make it one of the biggest IPOs ever.
Here is my theory. Money that bets on hype has to come from somewhere. Some traders may be raising cash now to grab a piece of the hottest AI listing of the cycle. That means selling risk, and crypto is often the first thing to go. I can’t prove it, but the timing lines up.
If that theory is right, some of this selling pressure could ease once ANT starts trading. I covered what the listing could mean for crypto in our Anthropic IPO post.
Optional FAQ entry (it fits after “Why is crypto down this week?”):
When is the Anthropic IPO?
Anthropic prices its IPO on November 18, 2026. Shares are expected to start trading on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT on November 19.
What We Wrote Back in August
This question isn’t new on the site. Back in August, I asked is the bear market over during a green month. My answer then was “maybe”, and I treated both scenarios as live. That plan aged well.
I also explained how the 4-year cycle bottom usually plays out. The halving clock sets the rhythm, but the exact low is always a surprise.
My buying the crypto bottom list carried the same message. Based on the cycle, the bottom looked more likely around October. Exact timing, however, was always impossible. That is why I spread my buys over a range.
Three months later, the answer is the same. Nobody knows. Plan anyway.
My Plan: 50% In, Limit Orders for the Rest
I don’t time the bottom. I plan for every scenario instead.
Since early August, I’ve been DCAing into my long-term bags. Today I’m about 50% allocated. That half is in the market, whatever happens next. If the bull resumes, I already own a good chunk. If it dips, I still have plenty of cash to buy lower.
The other half sits in limit orders. I split them into two groups. The first covers a mid case, a deeper flush below this week’s low. The second covers the worst case, a full capitulation that nobody wants. My ladder now runs from $66,000 down to $40,000, with the last order at the bottom. If those low orders never fill, I’m fine with that. It means the bull was never canceled.
On the trading side, I only have one position open: a BNB short with the stop already in profit. Everything else waits for a clearer picture.
Time in the market beats timing the market. I’ve seen too many people sit in cash for a perfect bottom, only to buy back higher. A DCA strategy takes the guessing out of it. If price does sweep the lows, watch for one of the classic bottom patterns before adding size.
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Final Words
So, is the bull market canceled? Not yet. Bitcoin still holds a higher low, and the June bottom near $58,000 is far below. However, a hot PPI, a Fed hike and more ETF selling could still drag it lower.
That’s fine. Nobody needs to call the exact bottom. You only need to survive every scenario and still have cash for the scary one.
Brand new and thinking about your first buy? Start with how to buy Bitcoin for the first time. Then buy slowly, over weeks, not all at once.
FAQ
Is the bull market over?
Not confirmed. Bitcoin bottomed near $58,000 in June 2026 and still trades well above that level. The bull case only breaks if BTC sets a lower low below $58,000.
Is the bull market canceled in November 2026?
No. Bitcoin dropped under $70,000 and ETH lost $2,000, but both remain above their June lows. For now, this looks like a deep pullback, not a confirmed new bear market.
Why is crypto down this week?
Several hits landed at once. Inflation ran hot, December hike odds rose, ETFs kept selling and tech dropped after Jensen Huang’s Nvidia exit. Leveraged longs then got liquidated.
What does the 4-year cycle say about November 2026?
Bitcoin’s last bear market low came in November 2022. Some traders expect a new low four years later, in November 2026. History rhymes, but it does not guarantee the timing.
Should I wait for the bottom to buy crypto?
Timing the exact bottom is close to impossible. Many investors spread their buys with DCA and use limit orders below the market for deeper dips.
What happens if Bitcoin breaks $58,000?
A break below the June low would print a lower low. That would weaken the bull case and open the door to the $40,000 to $46,000 range some analysts expect.
